True Count Frequencies — 8-deck Blackjack

Using the Hi-Lo count at 75% penetration, here is how often each true count actually occurs in 8-deck blackjack, computed by the Blackjack Theorem engine over millions of simulated rounds.

35.0%of rounds at a positive count (TC ≥ +1)
17.7%of rounds at TC ≥ +2
30.0%of rounds at true count 0

Distribution

≤ −39.07%
−28.68%
−117.28%
030.01%
+117.24%
+28.66%
+34.44%
+42.30%
+51.19%
+60.60%
≥ +70.52%
Hi-Lo balanced count, 75% penetration, one spot. The top and bottom rows are cumulative tails (true count of −3 or lower, and +7 or higher). Frequencies shift with penetration: deeper decks reach extreme counts more often.
Model your own betting spread against these frequencies.
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Why this matters

Card counting only earns money when you raise your bet at a high true count. Because positive counts are relatively rare, your realistic edge depends on how often they occur and how much you can spread. Fewer decks and deeper penetration both push more of the distribution into profitable territory.

Other deck counts